How Valuations Work
No black boxes. No guesswork. Here's exactly how CardVault turns a photo into a grade, a value, and a 10-year outlook.
Values from real sold comps — never asking prices
Every card value is built from actual sold listings only. We pull the 5 most recent confirmed sales for your exact card — same year, set, player, parallel, and card number — from sources like eBay sold items, 130point, PWCC, Heritage Auctions, and Goldin. We never use asking prices, active listings, or unsold bins. Outliers (any sale more than 2× or less than 0.5× the median) are excluded before we compute the median. If fewer than 3 sold comps exist in 90 days, we extend the window to 180 then 365 days. If no sold comps exist at all, we say so — we don't guess.
AI grading from your card photo
Upload a photo and our AI analyzes centering, corners, edges, and surface independently — the same criteria professional graders use. It recommends a conservative condition grade from 1–9 with a detailed written summary of every flaw detected. It's not a replacement for professional slab grading, but it tells you whether a card is worth the $25–$50 grading cost before you spend it.
1/1 and ultra-scarce cards: documented fallback
When a card has no direct sold comps — common for 1/1 prints and ultra-rare parallels — we use a documented scarcity-basket fallback. We estimate value from comparable cards in the same set, player, and tier, adjusted for print-run scarcity. These estimates are always labeled "Estimated — insufficient direct sales data" so you know exactly how the number was derived and can verify independently.
10-year projections recalibrated quarterly
Every quarter — December 1, March 1, June 1, and September 1 — we recalibrate all 10-year projections based on the latest player injuries, current on-field performance, career trajectory, Hall of Fame potential, rookie-card status, and market demand trends. A player's outlook can shift fast: injuries, trades, breakout seasons, or market downturns all move projections. Quarterly recalibration keeps your portfolio outlook current, not stale.
Honest disclaimer: estimates, not guarantees
Projections are informed estimates based on historical market data, player performance trends, and algorithmic modeling. They are not financial advice, investment advice, or professional appraisals. Actual market values may differ materially from estimates. The collectibles market is inherently subjective and market-dependent — individual sale prices can vary significantly in either direction. Always verify independently before making significant financial decisions.
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